Football Crack

Football Crack & B.N.B. Powerless Rankings: September 16th, 2008

Ah, two weeks down – two to go. There’s been some underachieving, some overachieving, and some conference altering injuries. Never mind that the 2008 NFL Draft could shake out to be one of the best we’ve seen in a while, at least from an offensive skill position perspective. I know I said I was going to try and do a bottom five, top five type deal with this – but instead I’m just going to focus on the bottom ten teams. Think of it as a black abyss in regards to a team’s playoff hopes. The good news? It’s only Week 2. So there’s no reason to get all hysterical and panic – although the time to do that is drawing near.

Cue the weaklings!


Dishonorable mentions: Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers


23. Minnesota Vikings

It’s funny how a popular sleeper pick ALWAYS manages to underperform, year after year. The Cardinals in 2006, the 49ers in 2007, and now it’s shaping up to be the Vikings in 2008. What do all of these teams have in common? Ding-ding-ding! They all have/had questionable QBs under center!


24. Seattle Seahawks

One could say the Seahawks defied the odds the past few years in their quest for multiple back-to-back NFC West crowns. On the other hand, you could say that they were able to do this in large part to there being absolutely zero competition for them to topple en route to the top. Either way, despite the NFC West looking as weak as it ever has, the Seahawks appear to have finally succumbed to reality. Pretty much their entire WR corps has been injured in some way or another. Although they could still pull it off if they get some of them back soon, it’s not looking very good. So much for a Mike Holmgren feel good last hurrah story..

25. Houston Texans

Granted, the Texans only loss this far was to the powerhouse Steelers, but they still were a disappointment considering the hopes attached to them in the pre-season. With a bottom ten, especially one this early in the season, there’s always going to be some question marks in the rankings – and the Texans are perhaps the biggest one this time around. All they need to get out of the basement is to defeat the resurgent Titans this Sunday. Yeah, exactly.

26. Atlanta Falcons

Ah, how much difference a week makes. Despite looking mighty impressive in a Week One romping of the Lions, the Falcons appeared to fall back to earth in a Week Two loss to the Buccaneers. This wasn’t too surprising. They have a rookie QB and were playing the Lions, after all. More on that team with an epically horrible GM in a bit.


27. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders won this past week, however it was against the Chiefs who are arguably the worst team in the league. Any team with as many questions at head coach as the Raiders have will have a difficult time winning consistently. The defense looked loads better, but again, it was against the Chiefs. Only time will tell if their rushing attack can prove to keep them in some ball games. It can only do so much.


28. Cincinnati Bengals

Just when you think they have it all together, are healthy, and are primed for a potentially upbeat season, the Bengals offense (the very thing that kept them legit, by the way) shits the bed and plays like one of the worst units for the first two weeks. Are they trying to get Marvin Lewis fired or something? Or is it a coup d’état against fantasy football owners? I’m stumped.


29. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were one of the teams none were too high on heading into the season, and one of their best players is now at odds with the coaching staff. Larry Johnson is right though, they need to give him at least 30 carries a game. What have they got to lose? (Hint: Absolutely nothing)


30. Detroit Lions

After an impressive first half in 2007, many thought the Lions had solved their losing woes and would actually finish with a winning record. The team has talent, there’s no doubt about that, but Matt Millen needs to go. Until he does, the shadow of all his poor decisions is going to loom over this team. What’s it going to take before he resigns? A riot?


31. Miami Dolphins

Many were optimistic about the Dolphins this year, with myself included. However, with the team’s refusal to pound the rock and no real option at QB with Chad Pennington’s inability to play competently, they’re just as bad as last year. Except this time around the defense doesn’t have Jason Taylor. Either Ronnie Brown bounces back and returns to pre-2007-injury form, or this team may end up struggling to win much more than their sole win total in 2007.


And the “winner” is…


32. St. Louis Rams

I don’t have anything nice to say about the Rams, so I’m not going to say anything at all. Except that I feel awfully bad for Marc Bulger. I don’t care what QB you put behind the Rams offensive line, they wouldn’t be effective wondering whether or not they had to go to the emergency room that night. End of story. The Rams need to get working on that sorry excuse for an O-line, because as of right now, it truly is offensive.

NFL Powerless Rankings - September 3rd, 2008

By Josh Galligan

After some low to mild success with my MLB Powerless Rankings, I felt it was only right to spread the nearly non-existent buzz to the wondrous NFL world we all know and love. If you’ve never read any types of Power Rankings then you’re either lying to yourself or you don’t know how to read. Since your reading this, we’ve just eliminated one half of those. Liar.

Any questions?


What are the Powerless Rankings?

The Powerless Rankings are a set of rankings that focus on the bottom five teams in the league at a given time (weekly). We pay so much attention to all the good teams -- ranking them and verbally commending them -- why should the bad teams be left out in the cold (besides that they’re horrible)?

Although it’s exciting at the beginning of the year because it tends to enflame fans of particular teams much more than during the mid-season mark, the rankings will eventually feature a top 5 as well. So they’ll start out strictly powerless but end up getting pretty powerful. Don’t worry though; I’ve heard that they end up coexisting together quite nicely from the three people who’ve read the MLB version.


How do I know if the Powerless Rankings are for me?

If you’re easily enraged and/or lack the ability to admit that your hometown team may not be stacked at every position, I suggest you turn away. Just pretend this article was about hamsters or something. What are you reading this for? You don’t even like hamsters! Go away!
Other than that, I don’t think there’s anything else that needs explaining. The rankings start at 28th and move down to 32nd in what is a warped, sorry excuse to try and build some suspense. The “winner” is basically the “loser”. It’s really quite ironic.


Do you realize that you’re essentially asking yourself questions?

Yes, yes I do. But hey, being on house arrest in the interests of being a good father and being at home with my daughter (while the other half works the overnights) does have its benefits! I have so much time on my hands that not only can I ask myself questions, but I can also pound out random articles that randomly appear in my head.


Will you please shut up and get on with this already?

Yes. My fault...





NFL Powerless Rankings – September 3rd


28. Miami Dolphins

Sure, the Dolphins team as a whole has improved since last year’s one-win pathetic fest, but not that much. In fact, they no longer have Jason Taylor who (in addition to salsa dancing) was a pretty big part of their defense for last very long time. Wait a second, aren’t Jason Taylor’s replacements Vonnie Holliday and Kendall Langford? Uh, yeah, that’s a bit of a downgrade I would say.

Joey Porter is also reportedly overreacting to minor injuries as if they are career threatening in nature, which sounds suspiciously to me like someone isn’t too high on playing on a rebuilding team again this year. As much as I’ll admit that the offensive unit has some rising young stars on it, the defense, at least for this year, aren’t going to be accomplishing too much outside of establishing a new identity.

Stock: Rising


29. San Francisco 49ers

As highly as you hold Mike Martz, you still have to know that even he can’t do the impossible. A lot of people are of the belief that he’s going to radically transform the offense into a well-oiled, Rams team of yore-esque, machine. Don’t get me wrong, the offense is going to get better. But they also don’t have anywhere else to go but up.

Barring J.T. O’Sullivan bursting upon the scene in something akin to the Brady/Romo, ‘What’s this guy’s name again?’ mold, the 49ers will only go as far as Frank Gore and the defense can take them.

Stock: At rest


30. Baltimore Ravens

Many people questioned the Ravens early decision to delay the start of the Joey Flacco era, mainly because of the other two options they were considering as starters (Kyle Boller and Troy Smith). In what was a refreshing surprise, the Ravens eventually ended up naming Flacco the starter, which was something their fans had been demanding since he’d been drafted. Although to be fair, they probably only did so because of blatant, recorded evidence contrary to that of their original decision. A smart move if I’ve ever seen one.

The primary staple of team, the defense, isn’t getting any younger, while the offense, which was usually the brunt of the team jokes, is on the rise. It’s a rebuilding year for sure, but at least the rebuilding appears to be going in a productive and sensible direction.

Stock: Dropping


31. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs shored up their team with some solid NFL Draft selections this past April. But unfortunately, they still have major questions at arguably the two most important parts of a football team --Quarterback and the offensive line. As talented as Larry Johnson is, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to carry the offense all by himself.

Until they prove to the contrary (a contrary that is a safe bet not to be proven Sunday), here the Chiefs will stay. Like the 49ers, if the Chiefs do manage to prove me otherwise, you can rest assured I will make fun of myself in the very next installation.

Stock: At rest


And the “winner” is…


32. Atlanta Falcons

Unlike the Ravens, the Falcons decided early on to throw rookie QB Matt Ryan into the starting fire this season. This probably had a lot to do with the fact that they had signed Ryan to a contract that was comparable to the gross income of a small country – but still. That’s neither here nor there. At least they decided what they wanted and they decided it early.

The 2008 Falcons could very well become the staple comparison for a team that is going through a ‘rebuilding year’.
All is not bad, at least on offense. Michael Turner could prove to be a solid starting RB and Roddy White looks to be a top-tier WR. However, clutching at straws isn’t going to get the Falcons any wins, so expect them to make a comfortable living down here in the basement.

Stock: Comfortably at rest

NFL 2008 Preview With Divisional and Playoff Predictions

Ah, can you smell it? No, not the sorry excuse for food you’re brewing in your kitchen – the NFL season genius! There’s a hint of fall in the air and all of the locals are wearing the current player bandwagon jersey. Labor Day has finally arrived and it’s officially okay to start planning how to bogart your children’s Halloween candy. It all hints at the same thing, with that thing being the official arrival of the NFL season. AKA, the only sports season that really matters.

For whatever reason, this particular off-season seemed especially rough. But it’s okay now, because we’re officially less than 72 hours from opening night.

Speaking of opening night, we’ll kickoff this year’s NFL season with two teams from the NFC East, which is arguably the toughest division in football. Well, save for the Redskins who are like the red-headed step child of the division, but even they are better than most other teams. Would there be a better place to start off an NFL preview than with the toughest division in the sport? I submit that there is not.

The key:

Z - Clinches home field advantage and wild card playoff bye
X - Clinches division
Y – Clinches wild card playoff bid

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins

The Dallas Cowboys are the popular pick here and with good reason, they’re team is stacked and they are the token most-played-as Madden team of 2008. However the only team that can go blow for blow with them on offense in the division are the Eagles. The Eagles improved on both offense (Desean Jackson) and defense (Asante Samuel), not to mention that they have a threat to top 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Brian Westbrook. Barring a Donovan McNabb injury, the team will be a serious competitor in both the division and the entire league.

Usually, defending Super Bowl champs get a bit more respect, but not when they’ve lost two integral parts of the winning team. Michael Strahan retired to follow Tiki Barber’s blazoned career path towards television whereas Osi Umenyiora has been lost for the year thanks to a torn lateral meniscus. And no, I have no idea what a meniscus is. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are talented, but not enough so to completely fill in the aforementioned players cleats. Not even close. It also remains to be seen which Eli Manning is going to show up this season. Either the Super-Vendetta, Eli or the Aw-Shucks-That-Was-My-Fault-You-Dropped-That, Eli.

Likely to end up in the cellar is the Washington Redskins. Jason Campbell and company will be making the transition into the West Coast Offense this year and will be working out all the kinks. Again, being in the basement of the NFC East isn’t even that bad. I see it being like a refurnished basement complete with ping pong tables, a mini-fridge and a nice sports watching section. Just like the AFC South’s would have…

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans

Easily the toughest division in the AFC, the South saw three of its teams gain entry into the playoffs last year. Even before all the reports out of Indiana broke about Peyton Manning’s not-that-serious knee injury actually being quite serious, I had the Jaguars pegged as division winners. They’ve shown they could at times play on the Colts level offensively over the past few years and now, finally, have a quarterback who is capable of managing everything necessary in order to beat them.

The defense lost some key players (Marcus Stroud) but quickly found players to shore up the defensive line through the NFL Draft (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves). The Colts on the other hand, have questions about Peyton Manning’s knee and Marvin Harrison’s ability to contribute at a pre-2007 level. Both instances have likely been over-blown, but it’s worth noting, especially from a team who hasn’t had any of those problems for what seems like the past 55 years.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are in the bottom tier of the division, but both having promising young teams. It’s a tossup as to who most think will finish ahead of the other, but I figure there’s a good chance they’ll both finish with nearly the same record (somewhere around 8-8). The key for the Texans will be the health of QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson whereas for the Titans it will be Vince Young’s progression into a mature QB. He showed flashes of maturity last year as well as a blossoming connection with his receivers. If everything goes as it should, this division could be a down and out war year after year for the next 5-7 years.

Also, does anyone think we should apologize to Charlie Casserley after he was shunned from society after the Mario Williams pick? Although Reggie Bush wasn’t a bust by any means, he definitely hasn’t lived up to the Barry Sanders like billing everyone was placing upon him. Hey, speaking of Reggie Bush...

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons

The New Orleans Saints had an off year last year compared to their 2006, but look to return to the big stage this year with nearly everyone healthy as well as some new additions. Jeremy Shockey and injury-red-shirt rookie Robert Meachem should make some positive contributions on offense. Plus, Drew Brees is very unlikely to take any of Shockey’s #### like Eli did, which could actually mean we may see an improvement in Shockey’s play. No one has had the balls to tell him what he does wrong yet, so we’ll have to wait and see how he’ll take to Brees. Several draft picks could contribute defensively, including but not limited to USC defensive tackle Sedrick Willis. Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma should also help out. To summarize it all, with the state of the rest of the division, it’s a safe bet that the Saints will win the NFC South this season.

The Carolina Panthers would beg to differ with that, with most of the key pieces from their explosive offensive days again ready to start together. Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad all look to be healthy, although Jake Delhomme is coming off of Tommy John surgery -- which is never a good thing for a QB. The Panthers also has a potentially potent duo of running backs in Deangelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. Unfortunately, besides some good rookies and solid at best free agent signings, the Panthers defense looks much the same as it did last year. Although last year’s problem was a failure to live up to expectations, so perhaps they can do the opposite in 2008.

A lot of people have Tampa Bay higher or maybe even winning the division, but I expect a Jeff Garcia fall back to earth this year. I actually expected it last year too, but it didn’t happen. Usually I wouldn’t expect such things two years in a row, but in Garcia’s case (his age), I’m going to. The defense is aging but is still solid and should be effective. Earnest Graham’s 2007 remains in question because it was so short, so we’ll have to wait and see on him as well. In a division known for the top teams falling down the ranks and then climbing back up again, this year may be the Bucs turn.

The Falcons are just a paradox now that we’ve learned that rookie Matt Ryan will start at QB and Michael Turner is as yet unproven as a starting RB. The defense isn’t very good, especially with the departure of Deangelo Hall, so it’s a wise move to expect a last place finish this year from them. Hey, that made me think of…

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears! You’ve likely heard enough about the NFC North too much already thanks to all that was covered during the Favre saga, but hey, we don’t have to talk about Brett again until the AFC East. Save that one for last? Sure! The Minnesota Vikings have a solid, talented team and are incredibly strong at nearly every position save for QB. Fortunately for them, the three other teams in the division have the same problem. Although Bryant McKinnie is out for four weeks and Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to win some of their ballgames himself, he’s going to have tons of opportunities to do so thanks to the Vikings defensive front. Is it too early to suggest a Purple People Eaters 2 type nickname? What’s that? That nickname sucked you say? Alright, well, the Vikings defense is going to be giving opposing offenses fits all year long and the combination of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor should give Tarvaris Jackson plenty of soft secondary’s to through into.

If Aaron Rodgers turns out as billed, then the Packers would have a good shot at the division. But the pressure of filling in You-Know-Who’s shoes and the fact that he’s going to have to beat the Vikings all by himself TWICE because Ryan Grant won’t have any success against them will likely add up to a second place finish. Maybe less, but I doubt that.

Taking a look at the other half of the division, the Chicago Bears situation has officially become a joke and the Detroit Lions have been one for years. However, I think the Lions have enough talent on offense and Jon Kitna is just crazy enough to think they can really win 14 games this year for them to have a decent enough year. Not 14-wins decent, but more like 7 or 8, and especially if they land Rudi Johnson to compliment Kevin Smith (which it appears they have).

As for the Bears, well, I don’t have anything nice to say so I won’t say anything at all, although I’d be surprised if they don’t finish in last place. A team I WOULD be surprised at finishing last calls home the…

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Baltimore Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers are stacked, that’s the only way I can put it -- just incredibly stacked. They have a weapon for nearly every devisable situation and it just baffles me. A lot of people think the Browns are going to compete with them thanks to last year’s performance but I had serious, serious doubts about Derek Anderson.

Unless he proves that last year wasn’t a fluke, especially after his tail-spin at the end of the year that was either due to A) He isn’t good under pressure, or, B) He isn’t good when defensive coordinators have sufficient game tape of him to game plan for, I think the Browns would do well to keep him on a short leash in favor or Brady Quinn. I could be wrong, but I think Andersons late 2007 performance has been overlooked quite often.

The team I was referring to that I would be surprised if they finished in last place was the Cincinnati Bengals. I even considered putting them in at the 2 spot but realized that the only reason I would be doing that would be to make a crazy, controversial prediction just for the sake of making one. I can’t stand people who do that.The Bengals once again have everyone healthy, although now they have a new RB with tons of potential. However that potential is watered-down by some injury risks, so it’s worth being wary of. Even if they have problems at RB again this year, barring Chad Johnsons shoulder popping out of his socket, causing him to miss the entire year – I think the offense will be just fine. It’s the defense where the questions lie, so hopefully rookie Keith Rivers will give them solid play from such a high draft pick.

The Ravens have questions at many positions but most has a good chance of panning out well in the long run (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Fabian Washington). The defense continues to get older all the while so it will be interesting to see when they start to focus on bringing some top-round Draft talent or solid free agents in order for the veterans to pass the torch on. Who knows, though, Joey Flacco could have a fantastic rookie season and the Ravens could compete for the division title. That would be quite doubtful, though. Just as doubtful is the situation out West…

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. St. Louis Rams
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

If the Seattle Seahawks played in any other division, it’s unlikely they’d still be able to scoot by and win the division year after year with so many injury problems. However, no one in the NFC West has stepped up to claim the throne, so the Seahawks stay seated there. This year, the only real threat to the division crown is the St. Louis Rams, who were plagued by injuries so widespread it seemed like it was contagious. With the return of a healthy Stephen Jackson and entire offensive line, the Rams look to fare a lot better this year.

Seattle’s situation is yet again muddied by injury this year and yet again at the WR position. Both Deion and Branch and Bobby Engram will miss a significant amount of time, although they leave behind openings that look to be filled by some talented young wide outs. Matt Hasselbeck is still Matt Hasselbeck; the RB spot has what seems like a dozen possible starting candidates and the defense isn’t the best in the league, but also isn’t the worst. Here’s a perfect opportunity to use the word solid right here. They Seahawks defense is solid. The word solid is a solid word in terms of being a football adjective, I think. The 49ers, doubtfully proud owners of the worst, most anemic offense in the NFL last year have been giving a gleam of hope with the arrival of Mike Martz.

The whole discussion has been beaten to death several times, so I’ll try and keep it simple. Josh Morgan is going to be Martz’s Torry Holt, Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce will combine to be Martz’s pre-2006 Isaac Bruce and Frank Gore is going to a be a tougher, more downhill running version of Martz’s Marshall Faulk. The only problem is that Martz is expecting J.T. O’Sullivan to be his Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner. This may be the year that Mike Martz finally realizes that he is indeed a mere mortal, just like the rest of us. I’ll be surprised if the offense catches fire this year, but if it does I will express and undying respect of Mike Martz. So we’ll see.

Finally, we have the Arizona Cardinals. The perennial underachievers of the NFL, the Cardinals fail to live up to hopes even when those hopes are actually warranted (like the arrival of Edgerrin James). The Cardinals season is going to be started off with Kurt Warner at the helm and he will lead them where he always does – on a good path towards the playoffs that suddenly and unexpectedly turns towards the edge of a cliff. This should happen around mid-season, with the hopes of a playoff bid dwindling. The Cardinals will throw Matt Leinart in, realize he won’t get them in the playoffs, but keep him in there anyway since they’ll also realize that maybe they need to keep him in for a good chunk of games in order for him to get used to being the starting QB. I heard in-game experience does wonders for quarterbacks, but what do I know? But speaking of in-game experience for QB’s…

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West has two quarterbacks who are in dire need of in-game experience: Brodie Croyle and JaMarcus Russell. Because of this, the division is essentially a shoo-in to be won by either the Broncos or Chargers. Jay Cutler proved last year that he’s the real deal and the fact that the Broncos running game is so frigging befuddling doesn’t really matter so much anymore. Brandon Marshall’s suspension was cut to one game, which meant more to his ecstatic fantasy owners than the actual team, and the team drafted rookie WR Eddie Royal, who is apparently of the rare breed of rookie WR’s with enough tools to be named a starter in his first year. All of that combined with major question in San Diego should add up to a division crown for the Broncos.

The San Diego Chargers have injury questions, mainly for Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, but LaDainian Tomlinson proved at the end of last year that he may be a mortal as well. The guy’s racked up nearly 2,500 carries (excluding receptions) so it’s really no surprise that he managed to get injured at least once. It’s a smart bet to expect either a regression or a beginning of a regression from him this year, which is something that will not bode well for Philip Rivers. Nor would the situation from his favorite target, Antonio Gates, who has stated he doesn’t know how his big toe will hold up this year. For such a big person and such a big percentage of Philip Rivers’s total completions, Gate’s big toe could spell big problems for Rivers and the Chargers overall offense. Poor Chris Chambers, he waited way too long to demand a trade from Miami.

That leaves the Chiefs and Raiders to battle it out for third place, although each team’s future looks very bright after their recent drafts. The Raiders have heralded, Hall of Fame lock, Darren McFadden to look forward to, while the Chiefs have a large portion of their 73 draft picks to look forward to. Not to mention, Brodie Croyle faced some very tough pass defenses in his 6 losses last year, so there is reason for some optimism with him this year. On the subject of optimism, let’s head down east to…

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mortal lock to once again finish last in the AFC East, despite improving leaps and bounds since Bill Parcells arrival. Overall in the division, barring a Tom Brady injury, the Patriots should once again take the division crown despite the fast improving competition.

The Jets got Brett Favre; everyone will be better, blah, blah, blah. The biggest acquisition and I’ll stand by this to the end will turn out to be Alan Faneca. He and Damien Woody will help shore up the offensive line, which is where all improvements to the running and passing game begin. Obviously, Brett Favre is an improvement but the biggest reason the Jets will truly compete for the AFC East title will be in large thanks to Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.

The Bills have apparently found a suitable future QB in Trent Edwards and a staple franchise RB in Marshawn Lynch. If James Hardy pans out, he should make for a dangerous pairing along with Lee Evans. So the offense appears all set. The defense is also fast improving, an improvement that was boosted for the short-term with the addition of Marcus Stroud. Had the Jets not acquired Alan Faneca, I most definitely would have penciled in the Bills for the two spot. But they did, so I won’t.

THE PLAYOFFS (DUH, DUH DUHH – DUH DUH DUH DUH DUH DUHHH!!)

Wild Card Round

(6) Jets @ (3) Jaguars - Jaguars

(5) Cowboys @ (4) Seahawks - Cowboys

(6) Panthers @ (3) Vikings – Vikings

(5) Colts @ (4) Broncos – Colts

Divisional Round

(5) Colts @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(3) Vikings @ (1) Eagles – Eagles

(3) Jaguars @ (2) Steelers – Steelers

(5) Cowboys @ (2) Saints – Cowboys

Conference Championships Round

(2) Steelers @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(5) Cowboys @ (1) Eagles – Cowboys

The Super Bowl

Cowboys vs. Patriots – Patriots

Non Homer Super Bowl Prediction

Cowboys vs. Steelers – Cowboys

I don't think the playoff picks need to be explained too much, although I couldn't decide who to pick between the Patriots and Steelers so I used the homer breakdown way out.

The RB Odometer: High Career Carry Red Flags

The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old. It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three-decades-old RB is even mentioned.




It’s always struck me as odd. There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s decline. I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29 year old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is 30 years old so much different?

Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RB’s? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement? At first, I didn’t even consider using the Top 10 in career carries since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper-echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings. Then I realized that they were indeed, still human – and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were. So until we find out John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.

To give a brief, step-by-step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the Top 200 RB’s for total career carries. A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit. I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.

I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year). I then added everything together for the remaining list but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a road block of a problem?

The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.

Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still. The top group consisted of RB’s who had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group were those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.

Next, I went through player by player and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year which would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.

Next, I calculated the amount of carries the given players had at that point. If you haven’t noticed by now, this whole system would be applied to RB’s BEFORE the season starts. It’s a yearly way of tagging red flags. You could do it mid-season, but by then it wouldn’t be of much use.

Now before I give the estimates and incur the wrath from those who have RB’s with approaching limits on their fantasy rosters, let me just spell out how this could potentially be used. The bottom half amount could be applied to everyone approaching the number of carries but with the realization that many have surpassed the limit and went on to have longer and even more consistent careers. So the bottom half red flag amount isn’t really an end all be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags – more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least its better then, “Uh, he’s thirty. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s thirty!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyway, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average ‘educated doubt’ for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries:

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

- Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
- Larry Johnson is speeding full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark with little to no regard for anyone or thing in his way.
- Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
- Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries:

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

- Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
- LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2350+ carries.
- Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
- How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.