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2007 Nfl Betting: Analyzing the Afc South

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): Led by an unheralded offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league for the third straight season, the Colts racked up an NFL record third down conversion rate of 56.1 percent last season. QB Peyton Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and RB Joseph Addai, who added 1,071 yards rushing as a rookie, are back for another season. The defense, which repaired a poor performance against the run late in the season, must replace a pair of cornerbacks but has solid depth and should be adequate.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 92-52

ATS: 72-68-4

HF: 32-31-1

HD: 3-3

AF: 21-16-2

AD: 14-13-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Colts are 8-1 ATS versus the Chiefs, who they play at home, Nov. 18.

Sports Betting Angle: Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS the week after playing division weakling, Houston.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The Jaguars took several steps back from their 12-4 season in 2005 and the blame rests squarely with an offense that was anemic last season. Head Coach Jack Del Rio fired three offensive assistants and the Jags will opt for a power running game, relying on the tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew 941 yards) and Fred Taylor (1,146 yards), taking some heat off QB Byron Leftwich, who lacks a quality receiving corps. Despite a bevy of injuries, Jacksonville’s defense finished second in the NFL. If Leftwich remains healthy and the offense improves, the Jaguars could challenge for a wild card spot.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 77-67

ATS: 73-65-5

HF: 27-23-2

HD: 12-7-1

AF: 12-19-1

AD: 22-17-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Jaguars have covered four straight games against the Steelers, who they meet in Pittsburgh, Dec. 16.

Sports Betting Angle: Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS the game after a double-digit loss.

TENNESSEE TITANS (8-8 SU, 11-5 ATS): The Titans won six of seven games down the stretch, mostly because QB Vince Young began to demonstrate his extraordinary talent, proving himself to be a player who could take over a game and make things happen. Sadly, Young is just about on his own now that top rusher Travis Henry (1,211 yards) and wideouts Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, the top two pass catchers, have left the team. The defense, which had only 26 sacks last year, was devastated by the loss of CB Pacman Jones, who now has bigger problems than man-to-man coverage. Even with the explosive Young, it’s tough to envision the Titans back in the playoffs.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 81-63

ATS: 71-67-2

HF: 21-26-1

HD: 13-10

AF: 10-13-1

AD: 24-21

Sportsbook Buster: The Titans are 0-9 ATS as road favorites of less than three points after a SU win.

Sports Betting Angle: Tennessee has covered four straight against both Atlanta and Tampa Bay, who they meet on successive weekends, Oct. 7 and 14.

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS): The Texans finished 28th in offense last season and QB David Carr, who suffered 43 sacks, was sent packing, making Matt Schaub the starting quarterback. The addition of former Packer Ahman Green gives Houston a veteran running back and Andre Johnson, who caught 103 passes last year despite numerous double teams, is a quality receiver. The offensive line, long a problem area, still needs a left tackle. The defense improved as the season went on but the Texans just don’t have enough quality overall to make a move up the division ladder this year.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 24-56

ATS: 39-40-1

HF: 4-6

HD: 16-13-1

AF: 0-0

AD: 19-21

Sportsbook Buster: The Texans are 4-13 as a non-division underdog of more than three points.

Sports Betting Angle: Houston is 5-1 ATS versus Jacksonville, who they play on the road Oct. 14 and at home Dec. 30.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

Third of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the AFC West

About the Author

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Jacksonville Jaguars Byron

Why do many ppl have little faith in jacksonville jaguars?

I mean they are fairly good for a new team.. almost had a super bowl season few years ago... have beaten the colts coupla times.. got good D, only problem is their offense (byron leftwich) ..but still why do so many ppl think they're not a play off team and say they suck.. the panthers came around the time jaguars were added to the league and they get better attention.. wtf is up with that

that's the wrong question... why do people HAVE faith in the jacksonville jaguars... i'm from jacksonville and never in my life will i be a fan. they suck. there are better teams. like the steelers, duh.